After Week 3, I shared some very early thoughts on how the new-look Pac could shake out if it were a conference this year. At that point, with Boise State having been blown out early and San Diego State reeling from a beatdown in Martin Stadium, it was hard to see much of an upper tier — and there was absolutely no hope of a CFP berth.
Fast forward to now, and this season has been marked by remarkable turnarounds: the Aztecs’ resurgence, Boise State’s return to form, and a revived WSU defense.
Enough lead-up — here’s where I’d rank the teams and how I’d break them into tiers today:
TIER 1: CFP Contenders
#1: San Diego State (6–1)
#9 PFF Ranking | #61 RPI | #41 CBS Sports Ranking
Best Win: vs California (34–0)
Worst Loss: @ WSU (13–36)
What a turnaround! Ranked dead last after Week 3 and coming off a blowout loss in Pullman, I did not see big things coming from the Aztecs — I could not have been more wrong. Sean Lewis’ squad is already bowl-eligible and now has eyes on a potential College Football Playoff run as the Group of 5 representative.
With the #2 ranked defense in the entire country allowing just 10.4 points per game, their trip to Pullman now looks like one of the stranger results of the season. After a home game against Wyoming this weekend, they hit the toughest two-week stretch of their schedule — traveling to Hawaii (6–2) to take on the Rainbow Warriors, then welcoming Boise State to Snapdragon Stadium. That matchup could vault them into the top 25 and the CFP conversation. Hats off to you, Sean Lewis!
#2: Boise State (6–2)
#66 PFF Ranking | #42 RPI | #40 CBS Sports Ranking
Best Win: vs UNLV (56–31)
Worst Loss: @ South Florida (7–34)
A disappointing Week 1 blowout on the road against a South Florida team that has spent most of the season in the top 25 had many (myself included) wondering if this was finally the Broncos’ down year. The secret to that game? Boise State actually outgained the Bulls — turnovers were their undoing.
A trip to South Bend to play a strong Notre Dame team produced a similar result (7–28) in a game where they threw four interceptions but nearly matched the Irish statistically. Blowing out Dan Mullen’s undefeated UNLV squad may have been the spark they needed. With a bye week before their trip to San Diego and three remaining games in which they’ll likely be double-digit favorites, Coach Spencer Danielson might just be thinking CFP again.
TIER 2: Good Bowl Team
#3: Washington State (4–4)
#93 PFF Ranking | #73 RPI | #75 CBS Sports Ranking
Best Win: vs San Diego State (36–13)
Worst Loss: @ North Texas (10–59)*
If you’ve read previous articles, you know the rollercoaster ride that has been this year’s Cougars. What looked like a discouraging first season for new coach Jimmy Rodgers — after back-to-back games giving up 59 points to North Texas and Washington — completely flipped following trips to top-10 Ole Miss and top-20 Virginia.
The defense has shown remarkable improvement since the bye week. Over the last four games, they’re allowing just 14 points per contest. Zevi Eckhaus taking over at QB has been a massive boost for the offense, and the coaching adjustments have revitalized the defense. The only frustration as a fan? Wishing we could replay North Texas and Washington to see what would happen now. Sigh. Oh well — that’s sports.
TIER 3: They Probably Make a Bowl Game (I Think)
#4: Fresno State (5–3)
#74 PFF Ranking | #103 RPI | #74 CBS Sports Ranking
Best Win: @ Hawaii (23–21)
Worst Loss: @ Colorado State (21–49)*
You may be asking why this five-win Bulldog team sits behind WSU — or why they’re not at least in Tier 2. Fair question. I think Fresno State is one of, if not the most, fraudulent teams in the country. Their record’s been boosted by FCS wins and narrow escapes against one-win teams like Nevada and Oregon State.
Back-to-back 20+ point losses to Colorado State and SDSU — with a trip to Boise this weekend — have the Bulldogs’ arrow pointing firmly downward. Two winnable but tricky home games against Wyoming and Utah State before finishing at two-win San Jose State likely get them to a bowl, but at this point, no win is guaranteed.
#5: Texas State (3–5)
#59 PFF Ranking | #89 RPI | #91 CBS Sports Ranking
Best Win: @ UTSA (43–36)
Worst Loss: vs James Madison (20–52)*
Texas State’s season has been defined by what-ifs. A one-point loss at Arkansas State on a missed extra point, a game-winning drive allowed in under a minute, an OT loss to a strong Troy team, and a double-OT loss at Marshall. Three 50/50 games — and they lost all three. Sometimes that’s just how it goes.
With three winnable games still on the schedule, the Bobcats could still claw their way into bowl eligibility. The blowout loss to JMU (a team the Cougs face in a few weeks) might, however, be a red flag for morale after those excruciating losses.
#6: Utah State (4–4)
#82 PFF Ranking | #90 RPI | #85 CBS Sports Ranking
Best Win: vs Air Force (49–30)
Worst Loss: @ New Mexico (14–33)*
One of the hardest teams to read. They’re 4–0 at home — all against teams they should’ve beaten — and 0–4 on the road — all against teams they were expected to lose to. No standout wins, no catastrophic losses. They are the definition of average.
A home game against Nevada after the bye should set them up for a stretch of @ UNLV (6–1), @ Fresno State (5–3), and vs Boise State (6–2) — all likely losses on paper. I think they can steal one, maybe at Fresno, and complete the most even season imaginable.
TIER 4: Playing for Pride
#7: Oregon State (1–7)
#121 PFF Ranking | #105 RPI | #116 CBS Sports Ranking
Best Win: vs Lafayette (45–13)
Worst Losses: vs Houston (24–27 OT), vs Fresno State (27–36)*
A season defined by the midseason firing of Coach Trent Bray and the disappointment of $1.5 million QB Malik Murphy not reaching expectations. Three games where they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory could have this season feeling entirely different — even winning two of those would’ve changed the narrative.
A matchup with winless Sam Houston State and a trip to two-win Tulsa sandwiched between rivalry games with WSU means there are still winnable opportunities ahead. I won’t be surprised if this team finishes with four wins. (Read my Oregon State preview for a deeper look into their season.)
#8: Colorado State (2–6)
#134 PFF Ranking | #109 RPI | #123 CBS Sports Ranking
Best Win: vs Fresno State (49–21)
Worst Loss: @ Wyoming (0–28)*
Another team I was wrong about — just in the opposite direction of San Diego State. I didn’t expect the Rams to be great, but their competitive opener against Washington offered some early hope. Outside of the surprise blowout win over Fresno State, though, this season has been a disappointment.
The schedule doesn’t ease up, and it’s hard to see another win coming. Oh well — Fort Collins is still a great place to be.