Coming off an encouraging win against a solid Toledo team, morale is high for Jimmy Rodgers’ squad as they head into Corvallis for the first of two matchups with the Beavers this year.
First off, it’s pretty cool that we play Oregon State twice this season — that’s something you rarely see in college football. The second matchup should give us a great look at which coaching staff makes the better adjustments.
It’s no secret that this has been a tough season for the Beavers. They’ve already fired their head coach and are still trying to pick up the pieces after Jonathan Smith’s departure for Michigan State two years ago (it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for Smith in East Lansing either). Unlike the last three opponents we’ve faced — who I felt were a bit overrated — I think the opposite is true of this Oregon State team. Their 1–7 record doesn’t reflect the talent on this roster.
Oregon State (1–7) | #116 CBS Sports Ranking | #105 RPI | #96 CFB Professor Ranking | #44 Strength of Schedule
Win: vs Lafayette (45 - 13)
Losses: vs Cal (15–34), vs Fresno State (27–36), @ #13 Texas Tech (14–45), @ #6 Oregon (7–41), vs #22 Houston (24–27 OT), @ Appalachian State (23–27), vs Wake Forest (14–39)
Offense Rankings (All Division I Teams, Per Game):
21.1 Points (#112) | 368.6 Yards (#84) | 223.8 Passing Yards (#66) | 133.3 Rushing Yards (#98)
Defense Rankings (All Division I Teams, Per Game):
32.8 Points Allowed (T-#121) | 412.6 Total Yards (#112) | 252.5 Passing Yards (#124) | 152.9 Rushing Yards (#84)
To get a better sense of who this team really is, let’s remove their games against Texas Tech and Oregon — two of the most expensive rosters in the country with legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations. We’ll also remove their win against FCS Lafayette (#30 in the FCS Coaches Poll). The other five teams the Beavers have played all are relatively comparable to WSU.
Non–Oregon/Texas Tech/Lafayette Games
OSU (0–5) | -7 Turnover Margin (9 Turnovers, 2 Forced)
Opponent Quality:
vs Cal (#69 CBS, #86 RPI, #73 CFB Professor)
vs Fresno State (#74 CBS, #103 RPI, #101 CFB Professor)
vs #22 Houston (#21 CBS, #52 RPI, #43 CFB Professor)
@ Appalachian State (#104 CBS, #102 RPI, #111 CFB Professor)
vs Wake Forest (#52 CBS, #65 RPI, #63 CFB Professor)
Offense Rankings:
20.6 Points (#113) | 399.2 Yards (T-#60) | 274 Passing Yards (#25) | 125.2 Rushing Yards (#103)
Defense Rankings:
32.6 Points Allowed (#118) | 369.6 Yards (#74) | 222.6 Passing Yards (#72) | 147 Rushing Yards (#73)
Takeaways:
- The Beavers rank among the bottom seven teams in the country in turnover margin.
- They’ve forced only five turnovers all year (T-6th lowest nationally).
- Despite that, they’ve outgained three of these five comparable opponents in total yardage.
What stands out most when you dig into the numbers? It’s staggering that a team averaging 30 more yards per game — and outgaining three of these five opponents — has lost every one of those contests. Fresno State, Houston, and Appalachian State were all games Oregon State could have, and probably should have, won.
What’s been consistent across all their FBS games is that everyone has been able to score on them — no opponent has been held below 27 points. The Beavers’ biggest issue has been turnovers, which have negated the yards their offense produces by giving opponents favorable field position and putting extra pressure on an already leaky defense.
WSU, interestingly, is tied with Oregon State for the sixth-fewest turnovers forced in the nation (just five). If the Cougs can’t generate takeaways, this game becomes a toss-up. With rain almost certain in the forecast, ball security will once again be crucial if WSU wants to leave Corvallis with its first win there since 2020.