I have to say, I didn’t come into this season with high expectations for the Cougs. We lost almost every key contributor from a team that wasn’t very good last year, and after the first couple of games—including a loss to Idaho—I was genuinely worried about what this season might become.
A few encouraging flashes at the Maui Invitational, highlighted by Ace Glass dropping a WSU freshman-record 40 points, sparked some optimism. But then came a trip to a perennial “solid but unspectacular” Bradley team, where the Cougs once again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, followed by a decisive home loss to a Nevada squad missing two starters. It’s been frustrating, and I’m sure I’m not the only fan feeling like this is becoming the norm for a David Riley-coached team.
To be clear: I’m not calling for Riley to be fired. I think he and Orlando Johnson have assembled a talented roster capable of competing in the WCC. But there are concerning trends—ones that echo gulp the Ernie Kent era—that make me question whether Riley’s approach can consistently win at the Division I level.
These three statistical areas are what worry me the most:
1. Turnover Margin
Turnovers are the reason WSU lost to Bradley and Seton Hall, and why we fell behind by 20 to Chaminade. Under Riley, the Cougs have committed more turnovers than their opponents in 32 of 45 games, and have won the turnover margin only 10 times.
Even going back to his Eastern Washington years, the best a Riley team has ever finished in turnover margin was –1.1 (176th nationally). That’s the high-water mark.
Turnover Margin Under David Riley
This Year: –2.8 (#325)
2024: –2.3 (#321)
2023: –1.1 (#176)
2022: –2.2 (#336)
2021: –1.7 (#300)
For comparison, Ernie Kent—whose teams were infamous for sloppy basketball—showed nearly identical patterns.
Turnover Margin Under Ernie Kent
2014: –2.1
2015: –3.2
2016: –2.3
2017: –2.0
2018: –1.5
2. Points Allowed Per Game
A key to Kyle Smith and Tony Bennett’s teams having success in Pullman was their commitment to playing defense, another area where Riley teams have struggled not just in his time in Pullman but his entire coaching career. The highest points per game that a Kyle Smith team allowed was 69.7 PPG, in his first year. The highest that a Tony Bennett team allowed was 59.5 PPG.
The lack of defensive urgency and the amount of easy baskets allowed are probably what has frustrated me the most watching Riley’s teams thus far. The best one of his teams has ever done is finishing #224 in the country in the category in 2022 at Eastern.
Points Allowed Under David Riley
This Year: 79.6 PPG (#305)
2024: 78.6 PPG (#334)
2023: 75.2 PPG (#277)
2022: 71.4 PPG (#224)
2021: 74.6 PPG (#307)
And again, the numbers mirror Kent’s tenure almost exactly:
Points Allowed Under Ernie Kent
2014: 76.5
2015: 77.2
2016: 76.6
2017: 77.8
2018: 78.7
The defensive lapses, the open shots, the lack of urgency—it's all eerily familiar.
3. Opponent Field Goal Percentage
Pairing a high number of points allowed with a high opponent FG% shouldn’t surprise anyone—but this is really the most interesting stat to investigate. Riley’s teams at Eastern may have given up a lot of points but they also held opponents to a much lower field goal percentage. I don’t know if Riley’s defensive schemes have the ability to hold up against division 1 athletes the way they did in the Big Sky.
Opponent FG% Under David Riley
This Year: 48.9% (#350)
2024: 44.6% (#231)
2023: 43.7% (#176)
2022: 42.3% (#83)
2021: 42.8% (#157)
Opponent FG% Under Ernie Kent
2014: 46.8%
2015: 44.2%
2016: 46%
2017: 46.5%
2018: 47.1%
What’s striking is how quickly things declined once Riley arrived in Pullman compared to his Eastern teams. Even in his best season at EWU (#83 in FG% against), his teams still allowed over 70 points per game due to pace.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I’m not trying to be overly pessimistic, but the numbers are concerning—especially this year. This is the first roster Riley fully built, and yet the team is giving up nearly 80 points per game while struggling with fundamental issues on both ends.
There is talent on this team. I genuinely believe that. But unless the staff finds a way to clean up turnovers, improve defensive effort, and reduce the number of uncontested shots opponents get, it’s hard to see things improving—especially starting next year in the new Pac-12.
I want Riley to succeed. I want this team to succeed. But the trends can’t be ignored.