The College Football Playoff discussion is in full force, and the biggest question right now is: Who will be the Group of Five representative? Last season, Boise State cruised to a 12–1 regular-season record, with the only blemish being a three-point loss at Autzen against an Oregon team that was the consensus No. 1 for much of the year—leaving little doubt about who would represent the Group of Five.
This season is a completely different story. Tulane is currently the only Group of Five team ranked by the committee, coming in at No. 24. So who are the true contenders to go on the road in Round 1 and try to pull off what would have to be a historic upset? Let’s take a look.
THE TRUE CONTENDERS
Tulane (8–2) — American Conference
#24 CFP | #24 AP | #25 Coaches | #62 CFB Professor | #58 PFF
Best Win: @ Memphis, 38–32
Losses: @ UTSA, 26–48; @ Ole Miss, 10–45
Remaining Schedule: @ Temple (5–5), vs Charlotte (1–9)
Tulane is the first of several American Conference teams still in the mix and currently sits in the driver’s seat as the only ranked team in the league. If tiebreakers come into play—which feels likely—the committee rankings determine who reaches the championship game. Assuming Tulane handles business in their final two matchups (both games in which they’re heavily favored), they’ll likely enter a win-and-you’re-in scenario in the AAC title game.
One storyline to monitor: head coach Jon Sumrall is reportedly in the mix for multiple head coaching openings across the SEC. If that situation evolves, it could impact Tulane’s stretch-run performance or even his availability if the Green Wave reach the CFP.
North Texas (9–1) — American Conference
#22 AP | #23 Coaches | #41 CFB Professor | #10 PFF
Best Win: vs Navy, 31–17
Loss: vs South Florida, 36–63
Remaining Schedule: @ Rice (5–5), vs Temple (5–5)
The Mean Green, a team WSU saw up close this year, were recently ranked for the first time since 1959 as former Cougar assistant Eric Morris has taken the program to a new level. Outside of a turnover-filled loss to South Florida (five giveaways), North Texas has absolutely looked like a team capable of an upset in the CFP.
One of the most explosive offenses in the country, no team has held North Texas under 31 points all season. It’s a bit surprising that Tulane got the ranking nod over NTU, given that nearly every metric favors the Mean Green. If they can’t break into the rankings with wins over a pair of .500 opponents, North Texas could miss the conference championship game entirely due to tiebreakers.
IF EVERYTHING BREAKS RIGHT
Navy (8–2) — American Conference
#26 AP | #26 Coaches | #76 CFB Professor | #59 PFF
Best Win: vs South Florida, 41–38
Losses: @ North Texas, 17–31; @ Notre Dame, 10–49
Remaining Schedule: @ Memphis (8–3), vs Army (5–4)
After a blowout loss to a Notre Dame team that keeps improving, it looked like Navy’s CFP hopes were gone. But a huge win over ranked South Florida kept them alive. Next week’s matchup at Memphis carries massive implications.
Navy’s path requires Tulane or North Texas slipping, likely both. The Notre Dame loss also showcased the gap between Navy and playoff-level competition. For the American Conference’s sake, the best-case scenario is probably Memphis beating the Midshipmen.
San Diego State (8–2) — Mountain West Conference
#32 AP | #33 Coaches | #63 CFB Professor | #13 PFF
Best Win: vs Cal, 34–0
Losses: @ WSU, 13–36; @ Hawai‘i, 6–38
Remaining Schedule: vs San Jose State (3–7), @ New Mexico (7–3)
Two weeks ago, Sean Lewis’ resurgent Aztecs looked like they controlled the Group of Five race—until an ugly 32-point beatdown against the Rainbow Warriors at Hawai‘i. They followed that up with a win against Boise State, but with BSU missing star QB Maddux Madsen and coming off a blowout loss to Fresno State, it didn’t move the needle much.
For SDSU to sneak in, they need Tulane and North Texas to lose, then finish with a dominant win over 7-3 New Mexico. It’s possible, but unlikely. And honestly, a team that lost by 23 in Pullman probably doesn’t belong in the CFP conversation anyway.
James Madison (9–1) — Sun Belt Conference
#21 AP | #22 Coaches | #34 CFB Professor | #7 PFF
Best Win: vs Old Dominion, 63–27
Loss: @ Louisville, 14–28
Remaining Schedule: vs WSU (5–5), @ Coastal Carolina (6–4)
At 9–1 and the highest-ranked team in the AP Poll, James Madison might look like the frontrunner. The problem? They’ve beaten only one team with a winning record.
For any realistic shot, JMU needs to dominate WSU, then hope Coastal Carolina beats South Carolina before the Dukes beat CCU convincingly. Even then, the American Conference is so much stronger this season that it would take both Tulane and North Texas stumbling for JMU to jump them.
Bob Chesney is a fantastic coach—and one that casual fans don’t know enough about—but the résumé gap is significant.
Final Thoughts
North Texas looks like the best overall team in this group, and their offense is clearly the most dangerous single unit among the contenders. The American Conference has clearly been the fifth-best league this season (and has a real argument at 4th above the ACC). Because of that, I expect the AAC champion to get the nod.
Unless all three AAC contenders collapse, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where another conference sneaks into the CFP spot.