With the new Pac-12 still a couple of months away from tipping off, it’s never too early to start grouping programs by where they realistically stack up. Based on current-season performance, resources, and historical consistency, here’s how the conference shakes out heading into the transition.
TIER 1: The Standard Bearers (Conference Title Contenders)
#1 Gonzaga (21–1)
#2 Utah State (16–3)
#3 San Diego State (14–5)
This is the clear top tier of the conference, and it’s not particularly close.
Gonzaga remains the gold standard. Regardless of roster turnover, Mark Few’s program operates at a different level than most of the country, not just the conference. An even revenue split without football gives the Bulldogs a built-in advantage, and their national credibility alone elevates the entire league.
Utah State has quietly built one of the most consistent mid-major power programs in the country. Sitting inside the top 30 of the NET and making five NCAA Tournaments in the last seven seasons, the Aggies are as reliable as anyone outside Gonzaga and San Diego State.
San Diego State is the one program that can truly go toe-to-toe with Gonzaga year in and year out. From Final Four runs to a National Championship appearance, the Aztecs have proven their ceiling is as high as anyone’s. After a slow start, they look very much like themselves again.
Bottom line: Gonzaga and San Diego State will probably rule over this conference most years but Utah State's last 7 years have been very impressive and they may fight to push into this tier more years than not. These programs should expect to finish in the top tier annually and will likely be the league’s NCAA Tournament representatives most seasons.
TIER 2: The Middle Class (NCAA Bubble / Upper-Middle Finishers)
#4 Boise State (12–8)
#5 Colorado State (12–8)
#6 Washington State (9–13)
#7 Oregon State (10–12)
This is where things get messy — and interesting.
Boise State and Colorado State are both proven tournament-capable programs that have hit a slight reset this season. Each has made the NCAA Tournament three of the last four years, and both should be firmly in the mix for top-four finishes most seasons.
Washington State lands here more by default than dominance. Ace Glass has been electric, but the broader issues with defense and consistency are well documented. Until WSU proves it can sustain physical, defensive basketball, this feels like the realistic lane: competitive, dangerous on the right night, but not quite a contender.
Oregon State mirrors WSU in many ways. Strong resources, flashes of upside, but long-term questions at the coaching level. Wayne Tinkle’s two NCAA Tournament appearances are still the program’s only trips since 1990, and it’s fair to wonder if a transition is coming.
Bottom line: These four teams will beat each other up. Some years one will break into Tier 1. Other years, one might slide down. This tier will likely define the week-to-week chaos of the conference.
TIER 3: The Climbers (Bottom Half, Looking for Stability)
#8 Fresno State (9–11)
#9 Texas State (11–11)
This is the bottom tier — for now.
Fresno State has struggled to find sustained success, with just one NCAA Tournament appearance in the past 25 years. A step up in conference competition could help recruiting, but until proven otherwise, the Bulldogs project as a lower-half finisher.
Texas State is the biggest unknown. Their .500 record masks a schedule heavy on weaker opponents, and basketball has never been the program’s calling card. While the Bobcats may be competitive quickly in football, the jump in basketball competition will be steep.
Bottom line: These programs are playing for growth, upsets, and momentum. Climbing out of this tier will require either a coaching breakthrough or a recruiting leap.