We are 24 hours away from the second 10 a.m. West Coast kickoff of the season for the Cougs. Against Ole Miss, WSU came out of the gates ready to play and hit the Rebels in the mouth. They’ll need to bring that same energy and focus in this game to avoid falling behind early.
Here’s what you need to know for tomorrow’s game:
WSU (5–5) @ #21 James Madison (9–1)
Game Time: 10:00 AM
Broadcast: ESPN+
Spread: JMU -13.5
Weather: 54° at kickoff — 50% chance of rain, minimal wind
Keys to the Game
Win the Turnover Battle
Through nine games, the Cougs are -9 in turnover margin, while James Madison sits at even on the season. As with most teams in college football, turnover margin is one of the clearest indicators of game outcomes — and that’s especially true for WSU.
When turnover margin is even or WSU wins it: 4–1 (only loss at Ole Miss)
When WSU loses turnover margin: 1–4
Win the First Half
JMU’s defense has been strong all season, but they are especially tough after halftime.
First Half:
- 10.6 points allowed
- Outscoring opponents by 7.1 points
Second Half:
- Just 5.6 points allowed
- Outscoring opponents by 13.8 points
- Have allowed 7 points or fewer in 7 of 10 games
- Four second-half shutouts
WSU already struggles to score in the second half, and there’s no reason to believe that magically changes now. If the Cougs are tied or trailing at the half, the odds swing heavily toward the Dukes.
Keep the 3rd Down Stats Close
The biggest statistical mismatch in this matchup is 3rd down performance. Since the Apple Cup, WSU’s defense has become one of the better units in Division I, allowing just 4 first downs in 23 attempts over the last two games. The offense, however, hasn’t been nearly as strong — and sustaining drives will be essential to staying competitive.
James Madison Offense: 52.2% (6th in FBS)
WSU Offense: 35.9% (102nd in FBS)
James Madison Defense: 30.2% allowed (9th in FBS)
WSU Defense: 37.5% allowed (55th in FBS)
Since Apple Cup: 32.9% allowed (23rd in FBS)
Win the Time of Possession
James Madison has won time of possession in 9 of 10 games and ranks #2 in the country, holding the ball nearly 10 minutes longer than opponents per game — trailing only Army’s triple-option by seconds.
WSU also excels here, ranking #19 nationally with an average advantage of nearly 4 minutes per game.
JMU’s run game and elite 3rd-down numbers feed directly into their possession dominance. If turnovers are even, the team that wins time of possession will likely win this game.
Prediction: WSU 20 — JMU 17
A 13.5-point spread is understandable when you’re facing a team that’s 9–1 and 20–3 at home since joining FBS, but JMU’s light schedule plays a major role in that number — and WSU hasn’t lost by more than three points since the Apple Cup.
This is shaping up to be a defensive battle, and the way our defense is playing means we have a chance in any game. With the Dukes creeping into the CFP picture, the pressure ramps up — and with more pressure often come uncharacteristic mistakes. I think we see a couple.
WSU plays a conservative, ball-control game. Zevi protects the football. The defense continues its late-season surge. And the Cougs escape Harrisonburg with the biggest win of the Jimmy Rodgers era.