After a dominant defensive performance in a blowout win over Louisiana Tech, WSU packs up once again and heads east for the third time this season. And for the third time, they’ll face a one-loss, ranked opponent — this time the James Madison Dukes.
A 10 a.m. West Coast kickoff and a spread favoring the Dukes by 13.5 points suggest a tough test for our Cougs, but let’s take a deeper dive into the numbers to see what this matchup really looks like.
James Madison (9–1)
Rankings: #21 AP Poll | #22 Coaches Poll | #34 CFB Professor | #7 PFF
Wins: vs Weber State (45–10), @ Liberty (31–13), vs Georgia Southern (35–10), @ Georgia State (14–7), vs Louisiana (24–14), vs Old Dominion (63–27), @ Texas State (52–20), @ Marshall (35–23), vs Appalachian State (58–10)
Loss: @ Louisville (14–28)
Offense Rankings (All Division I, Per Game)
37.1 Points (T-#14) | 457 Total Yards (#19) | 215.7 Passing Yards (#81) | 241.6 Rushing Yards (#7)
Defense Rankings (All Division I, Per Game)
16.2 Points Allowed (#11) | 257.1 Total Yards (#5) | 168 Passing Yards (#14) | 89.1 Rushing Yards (#8)
By the raw numbers, James Madison has been one of the most dominant teams in the country this season. The question is how much of that dominance is inflated by a soft schedule. The Dukes have beaten only one team with a winning record (Old Dominion), so let’s narrow the focus to opponents that resemble WSU’s level and see what we can actually learn.
Closest Comparisons to WSU-Level Opponents
James Madison Record: 3–1 | Turnover Margin: +2 (5 giveaways, 7 takeaways)
Opponent Quality:
@ Louisville — #35 CBS | #25 Strength of Record | #38 CFB Professor
vs Old Dominion — #64 CBS | #52 SOR | #71 CFB Professor
@ Texas State — #91 CBS | #117 SOR | #85 CFB Professor
@ Marshall — #105 CBS | #103 SOR | #95 CFB Professor
Offense Averages (in these four games):
41 Points (#7) | 452 Yards (#21) | 246 Passing Yards (#49) | 206 Rushing Yards (#19)
Defense Averages (in these four games):
24.5 Points Allowed (#72) | 329 Yards (#36) | 189 Passing Yards (#28) | 140 Rushing Yards (#53)
Takeaways
- The Dukes are 20–3 in their four seasons as an FBS program.
- Their offense is balanced and statistically one of the best in the country.
- Their defense looks far more average against respectable competition, giving up 20+ points in all four of these higher-end matchups.
- They’ve played only one one-score game all season.
- They’ve attempted 11 field goals, making seven, with a long of just 42 yards.
What stands out most? Their defense appears elite in the full-season data, but when you filter out the weakest opponents, they become much more human. At the same time, holding Old Dominion — one of the better Group of 5 offenses — to just 27 points is still impressive.
James Madison is squarely in the hunt for the Group of 5’s CFP berth, bringing added pressure to win — and win convincingly. Historically, they’ve been dominant at home, going 5–1 each of the last three seasons and currently sitting at 5–0 this year. We’ll see if the trend of dropping one a year holds.
The challenge in evaluating them is simple: their schedule has been soft, and it’s difficult to know exactly how good they are. What we can say is that WSU’s defense is probably closer to Louisville’s than anyone else JMU has faced since the Apple Cup.