Coming off two trips to the East Coast and two spirited efforts that ended in heartbreaking losses, the Cougs return to Pullman for the first time in a month to face the Toledo Rockets.
It’s strange to say that after seven games you still don’t have a strong read on an opponent, but that’s exactly the case with this Toledo team. Their rankings are heavily skewed by one of the easiest schedules in the country, making it hard to take much away from the raw numbers.
Toledo (4–3) | #87 CBS Sports Ranking | #62 RPI | #43 CFB Professor Ranking | #128 Strength of Schedule
Wins: vs Western Kentucky (45–21), vs Morgan State (60–0), vs Akron (45–3), vs Kent State (45–10)
Losses: @ Kentucky (16–24), @ Western Michigan (13–14), @ Bowling Green (23–28)
Offense Rankings (All Division I Teams, Per Game):
35.3 Points (T-#31) | 457.1 Yards (#26) | 245.1 Passing Yards (#45) | 201.7 Rushing Yards (#28)
Defense Rankings (All Division I Teams, Per Game):
14.3 Points Allowed (#7) | 225.7 Yards (#3) | 125.3 Passing Yards (#5) | 85.3 Rushing Yards (#8)
To get a better sense of who this team really is, let’s remove their games against FCS Morgan State and the wins over Akron and Kent State — two of the worst Division I teams this year.
4 Games Against Top 111 RPI Opponents
Toledo (1–3) | +2 Turnover Margin (6 Turnovers, 8 Forced)
Win:
vs Western Kentucky (#74 CBS, #111 RPI, #98 CFB Professor)
Losses:
@ Kentucky (#79 CBS, #51 RPI, #46 CFB Professor — last in the SEC)
@ Western Michigan (#101 CBS, #90 RPI, #74 CFB Professor)
@ Bowling Green (#113 CBS, #101 RPI, #111 CFB Professor)
Offense Rankings (Per Game, vs Top 111 RPI Opponents):
24.25 Points (#90) | 386.5 Yards (#68) | 206 Passing Yards (#93) | 180.5 Rushing Yards (#47)
Defense Rankings (Per Game, vs Top 111 RPI Opponents):
21.75 Points Allowed (#49) | 288.75 Yards (#15) | 181.25 Passing Yards (#27) | 107.5 Rushing Yards (#26)
Takeaways:
- The Rockets are undefeated at home and winless on the road.
- They’ve played the 9th-easiest schedule in the country.
- Their best win came against Western Kentucky (#111 RPI, #98 CFB Professor Ranking).
Even when you remove the cupcakes from their schedule, one thing stands out — the Rockets have a legitimately strong defense. Their offense, especially the passing attack, looks far less effective against better competition. Toledo plays a chaotic brand of football that can produce wild results — forcing eight turnovers in four games against solid opponents is impressive, but giving the ball away six times in those same games is costly. If the Cougs can protect the football, I like their chances.