As this tournament has unfolded and especially yesterday as two of my Final Four teams got eliminated, I’ve realized that picking a winner is merely a disappointing endeavor without some sort of equation for loss. Even with four games per day it seems like picking four winners is unanimously stacked against you. So today and from now on I’ll be picking with a confidence rating by percentage as well.
FOCUS GAME: #12 Oregon vs #1 Louisville
CONFIDENCE %: 66
PREDICTION: I’m really hoping Oregon prevails and I think they match up well with the Cardinals, but Louisville does not stop coming at you. What I like for Louisville is there ability to counter every punch with their own and it seems like at multiple times per half they get 2-for-1 spurts that decimate a team. What I like for Oregon is their confidence level coming in is sky high, not to mention they are playing with a chip on their shoulder from being ranked so low. Did I mention they are also the last team carrying the banner for the Pac-12?
FOCUS GAME: #4 Michigan vs #1 Kansas
CONFIDENCE %: 52
PREDICTION: Kansas flirted with disaster for a half against UNC, but the old Jayhawks returned for half number two and they have to be feeling great about that. Michigan’s feeling great about themselves too though after wasting a favored VCU team. This is going to be a back and forth affair which I expect Kansas will escape from, but not by much. Their bigs are the reason I think they get it done.
FOCUS GAME: #3 Michigan State vs #2 Duke
CONFIDENCE %: 40
PREDICTION: Yes that’s right, my confidence in Duke winning is 40%, but I somehow pick them here. Yesterday all but one of my picks got dumped bad so somehow I feel like picking Duke here is a kiss of death. I don’t know what it is about these two teams that make them almost unbeatable in the Sweet 16, but they are, however one of them must lose. There is absolutely no advantage at any position for either team and it’s going to be a fun game to watch… on commercials of FGCU vs Florida!
FOCUS GAME: #15 FGCU vs #3 Florida
CONFIDENCE %: 51
PREDICTION: The darlings have something going and I think (albeit barely) that they will get just one more game into this thing before ultimately falling out. The athleticism and relentless nature of the FGCU guards matches up perfectly with Florida, who at times can go into a 5-6 minute lull during games. If that happens here, FGCU is ready to take full advantage and move on.